Every casual sports fan in the universe has heard about the big 4th down play that cost the Patriots a victory in their epic matchup with the Colts this past Sunday
Facing 4 and 2 yards to go on their own 28 yard line, Belichik elected to go for the first down and not punt the ball away. The stakes were very high as a failed attempt would give the Colts an almost certain victory and a punt would make their task more difficult but far from impossible. So Belichik rolled the dice. The play actually worked, but they did not get the yardage needed for the 1st down.
The Colts took over on downs and patiently scored the winning touchdown with mere seconds left on the clock.
Below is a video of the play.
Everyone and their grandmother has an opinion about this play. The strongest initial reaction came from a couple of former Patriots defensive players turned analysts. Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi felt this was a huge slight to the Patriots defense. Belichik sent a message to them that he could not trust them to stop the Colts offense and he felt he had a better shot at victory by gambling on 4th down.
Right when it happened I found myself thinking about my favorite ESPN.com columnist, Gregg Easterbrook. He writes the Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) column and has been saying for years that punting is a worse play than going for the first down on 4th down. There is even a high school team that (almost) NEVER punts – and they win! NFL Head Coaches punt because they won’t be blamed for their defense allowing a score but the Coach is blamed if the 4th down conversion fails. It is all about shifting the blame according to TMQ. Here are some numbers and analysis to back up his claim. In short TMQ claims, punting is for wimps. Read his predictable take on the play here.
The next wave of opinions on the Patriots failed 4th down conversion is in. The Wall Street Journal backs up Belichik’s decision with TMQ-esque numbers. There was a 70% chance of victory with a punt and a 79% chance of victory if they went for the 1st down.
Plus, they have an opinion. Belichik is an abberation. In their own words:
Above all, though, the essence of Mr. Belichick’s “crime” may be something simpler than all this: His decision went against the natural instincts of all human beings when they’re forced to make high-stakes decisions. In a recent study, researchers from Duke and UCLA found that when faced with a decision involving risk, people have an overwhelming tendency to make the supposedly safe choice—to err on the side of caution—even though doing so may lead to worse results.
Passive mistakes can cost more than aggressive mistakes.
It is foolish to be aggressive when the aggressive move carries more risk than the passive move.
It is cowardice to make the passive choice when the aggressive choice carries less risk, and you are just too big a wimp to make the right choice.
And if the defense is going to be upset they are big crybabies. You are on a team. You’re collective job is to win. If you are not willing to do what it takes to win, you don’t belong in a competitive game like NFL Football. The Head Coach is paid to win the games, the players are paid to execute the game plan and we are the suckers who spend our time and energy watching a bunch of wimps and crybabies.
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WSJ hits the nail on the head.
Excellent analysis, Rabbi. You extracted an important life lesson.
PS: How do you feel about surprise punting on third down?
If it is 3 and 30 and you’re not getting the first down anyway – it might be your best bet!
On Monday Night Countdown Bruschi said that he’d be upset at the moment, even upset the day after, but by Tuesday you forget about it and get ready for your next game.